· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Las Rozas vs Trival Valderas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Las Rozas and 1.29 for Trival Valderas, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Las Rozas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.2% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Las Rozas home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Trival Valderas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Las Rozas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Las Rozas and 1.29 for Trival Valderas, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Las Rozas
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Galapagar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cala Pozuelo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 1-3 (L)
Trival Valderas
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Aranjuez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colonia Moscardó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 2 | Trival Valderas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Las Rozas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Cala Pozuelo | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | RC Alcobendas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Galapagar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Fuenlabrada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Unión Adarve | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Parla Escuela | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.