Lascaris vs Celle Varazze Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lascaris and 0.58 for Celle Varazze, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Lascaris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lascaris win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Celle Varazze away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lascaris to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 27% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Lascaris and 0.58 for Celle Varazze, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Match result (1X2)

Lascaris win59%

Draw27%

Celle Varazze win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.9%
2–013.8%
0–012.9%
1–111.0%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Lascaris

Celle Varazze

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bra · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chisola · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lascaris win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.