Raiffeisen Arena · Analysis updated 21:31 UTC
Lask Linz vs Ried Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Lask Linz and 2.75 for Ried, a combined total of 6.50. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 94% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lask Linz win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
3.75 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lask Linz home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ried away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 15% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.75 goals for Lask Linz and 2.75 for Ried, a combined 6.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.0%
- 4–24.7%
- 3–34.6%
- 4–34.3%
- 2–24.0%
Recent form
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 6-1 (W)
Ried
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberger AC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lask Linz win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 94%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.