Raiffeisen Arena · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.28 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lask Linz win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lask Linz home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Hartberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Lask Linz and 1.28 for TSV Hartberg, a combined 4.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.7%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 6-1 (W)
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lask Linz win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.