Stadio Domenico Francioni · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Latina vs Forli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Latina and 2.75 for Forli, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Forli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forli win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Latina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Forli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 19% / 17% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Latina and 2.75 for Forli, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–37.4%
- 2–26.1%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Latina
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Reggiana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gubbio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grosseto · 4-1 (W)
Forli
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vado · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostia Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Torres · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pineto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Pescara | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atalanta II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Latina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forli win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.