Stadio Domenico Francioni · Referee A. Liotta · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Latina vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Latina and 1.38 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Guidonia Montecelio 1937 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Latina home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Latina
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Reggiana · 0-1 (L)
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Torres · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pescara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pineto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · Latina 1-1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone B)
- 2024-01-19T19:45:00.000Z · Latina 1-0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2023-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Latina 2-2 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2023-03-04T13:30:00.000Z · Latina 0-0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2022-10-30T13:30:00.000Z · Latina 0-2 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2022-04-24T15:30:00.000Z · Latina 1-0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2021-12-19T13:30:00.000Z · Latina 3-3 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (Serie C - Girone C)
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Pescara | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Torres | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Livorno | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Perugia | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Vado | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Campobasso FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Latina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Pineto | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Forli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Ostia Mare | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Pianese | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 7 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.