Latina vs Ostia Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Latina and 1.20 for Ostia Mare, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Ostia Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Latina home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ostia Mare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ostia Mare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Latina and 1.20 for Ostia Mare, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Latina win36%

Draw28%

Ostia Mare win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.2%
1–010.9%
0–09.3%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Latina

2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta II · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Reggiana · 0-1 (L)

Ostia Mare

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Latina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gubbio · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Latina 1-1 Ostia Mare (Coppa Italia Serie C)
2020-01-05T13:30:00.000Z · Latina 1-2 Ostia Mare (Serie D - Girone G)
2019-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Latina 2-2 Ostia Mare (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie C - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	14	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	10	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	8	19
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	2	18
5	Reggiana	10	5	2	3	5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	4	16
7	Livorno	10	4	4	2	1	16
8	Perugia	11	5	1	5	-2	16
9	Vado	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Torres	10	4	3	3	-1	15
11	Pineto	11	3	5	3	-2	14
12	Latina	10	3	4	3	0	13
13	Atalanta II	9	4	0	5	-3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	3	3	4	-5	12
15	Forli	10	2	5	3	0	11
16	Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	-4	9
17	Pianese	10	1	5	4	-4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	-3	7
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	-11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.