Stade de la Tuiliere · Referee Anojen Kanagasingam, Switzerland · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.33 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives BSC Young Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BSC Young Boys win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lausanne home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BSC Young Boys away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Lausanne
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 2-3 (L)
BSC Young Boys
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2026-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2026-01-17T19:30:00.000Z · Lausanne 3-1 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2025-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 5-0 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2025-05-03T18:30:00.000Z · Lausanne 3-2 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2025-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 0-3 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2025-02-01T17:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 1-2 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2024-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · Lausanne 1-1 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2024-03-17T15:30:00.000Z · Lausanne 2-0 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
- 2024-02-03T17:00:00.000Z · Lausanne 0-1 BSC Young Boys (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BSC Young Boys win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.