· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Lauterach vs Hohenems Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lauterach and 2.21 for Hohenems, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Hohenems the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hohenems win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lauterach home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hohenems away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–37.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 60.0% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.30 | 39.2% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 80.4% | 80.4% | 1.24 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.0% | 19.9% | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.40 | 66.3% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 80.4% | 80.1% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 5.10 | -0.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lauterach
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SVG Reichenau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dornbirn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rheindorf Altach II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 1-3 (L)
Hohenems
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lauterach · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-27T17:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 1-4 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-11-08T13:30:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-1 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-05-29T09:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-2 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 1-4 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2022-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 4-4 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2022-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-1 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2021-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-0 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2021-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-2 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2020-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 2-4 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
- 2020-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Lauterach 0-5 Hohenems (Regionalliga - West)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Imst | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Schwaz | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Swarovski Tirol II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | SK St. Johann | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Röthis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Lochau | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hohenems win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.