Lavagnese vs Città di Varese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lavagnese and 1.56 for Città di Varese, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Lavagnese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lavagnese home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Città di Varese away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lavagnese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Lavagnese and 1.56 for Città di Varese, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lavagnese win38%

Draw24%

Città di Varese win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%
1–06.8%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Lavagnese

2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Varese · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-4 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Valenzana · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gozzano · 0-0 (D)

Città di Varese

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontedera · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella Vis Modena · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Sesto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coriano · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	9	8	0	1	9	24
2	Chisola	9	5	2	2	8	17
3	Biellese	9	5	2	2	7	17
4	Millesimo	9	5	1	3	9	16
5	Ligorna	9	5	1	3	5	16
6	Imperia	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Sanremese	9	3	4	2	3	13
8	Derthona	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Borgosesia	9	3	3	3	0	12
10	Saluzzo	9	2	5	2	0	11
11	Asti	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Lascaris	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Gozzano	8	3	1	4	-4	10
14	Bra	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Fezzanese	9	3	1	5	-5	10
16	Sestri Levante	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Valenzana	9	1	2	6	-7	5
18	Celle Varazze	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.