Stade Francis Le Basser · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Laval vs Montpellier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Laval and 1.43 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Montpellier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Montpellier win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Laval home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montpellier away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montpellier to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Laval and 1.43 for Montpellier, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Laval
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-2 (L)
Montpellier
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Nancy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Annecy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Sochaux | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Nantes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montpellier win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.