· Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Laval vs Rennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Laval and 1.65 for Rennes, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Laval the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Laval win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Laval home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rennes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Laval to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Laval and 1.65 for Rennes, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Laval
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-2 (L)
Rennes
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · Laval 1-0 Rennes (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · Laval 1-2 Rennes (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Laval win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.