Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lazio and 0.95 for AC Milan, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AC Milan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lazio win36%

Draw31%

AC Milan win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–014.2%
1–014.2%
0–113.5%
1–113.5%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Lazio

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)

AC Milan

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
2026-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 AC Milan (Serie A)
2025-12-04T20:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 AC Milan (Coppa Italia)
2025-11-29T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
2025-03-02T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
2024-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
2024-03-01T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-1 AC Milan (Serie A)
2023-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · Lazio 0-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
2023-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · Lazio 0-2 AC Milan (Serie A)
2023-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 4-0 AC Milan (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.