· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Lazio vs Arezzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Lazio and 1.40 for Arezzo, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lazio win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arezzo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lazio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 14% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Lazio and 1.40 for Arezzo, a combined 4.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.2%
- 4–16.1%
- 3–05.5%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Arezzo
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palermo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avellino · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.