Stadio Olimpico · Analysis updated 21:49 UTC
Lazio vs Bologna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lazio and 0.72 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lazio win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bologna away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Bologna
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2026-02-11T20:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-1 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-1 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2025-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Lazio 0-5 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2024-11-24T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 3-0 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2024-02-18T11:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-2 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2023-11-03T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-1 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2023-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-0 Bologna (Serie A)
- 2023-01-19T17:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
- 2022-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · Lazio 2-1 Bologna (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.