Stadio Olimpico · Analysis updated 12:45 UTC
Lazio vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Lazio and 1.01 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lazio win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Lazio
- 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
Frosinone
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-1 Frosinone (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-03T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Frosinone (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-16T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 3-2 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2023-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 3-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2019-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2018-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2016-02-21T17:00:00.000Z · Lazio 0-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
- 2015-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.