Stadio Olimpico · Referee Ermanno Feliciani, Italy · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Lazio vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Lazio and 0.72 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lazio win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lazio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Lazio and 0.72 for Genoa, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.9%
Recent form
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2026-01-30T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 3-2 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2025-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 3-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2025-04-23T16:30:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Lazio 3-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2024-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2023-12-05T20:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Genoa (Coppa Italia)
- 2023-08-27T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-1 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2022-07-27T16:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-4 Genoa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-10T10:30:00.000Z · Lazio 4-1 Genoa (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.