Lazio vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lazio and 0.83 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lazio win

55.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lecce away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lazio win56%

Draw25%

Lecce win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.2%
1–111.7%
2–011.3%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Lazio

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)

Lecce

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-0 Lecce (Serie A)
2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
2025-05-25T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 0-1 Lecce (Serie A)
2024-12-21T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-1 Lecce (Serie A)
2024-01-14T11:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Lecce (Serie A)
2023-08-20T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 1-2 Lecce (Serie A)
2023-05-12T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 2-2 Lecce (Serie A)
2023-01-04T15:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-2 Lecce (Serie A)
2020-07-07T17:30:00.000Z · Lazio 1-2 Lecce (Serie A)
2019-11-10T14:00:00.000Z · Lazio 4-2 Lecce (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.