Stadio Olimpico · Referee Guiseppe Collu · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Lazio vs Monza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lazio and 0.74 for Monza, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lazio win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 57.7% vs market 50.0%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.6% | 83.5% | 1.20 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 59.2% | 59.4% | 1.68 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.1% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 76.0% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.7% | 16.4% | 6.10 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 41.3% | 40.5% | 2.47 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Monza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-09T14:00:00.000Z · Lazio 5-1 Monza (Serie A)
- 2024-11-10T17:00:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Monza (Serie A)
- 2024-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-2 Monza (Serie A)
- 2023-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · Lazio 1-1 Monza (Serie A)
- 2023-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · Lazio 2-0 Monza (Serie A)
- 2022-11-10T19:45:00.000Z · Lazio 1-0 Monza (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.