Campo Mirko Fersini · Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Lazio W vs Napoli W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lazio W and 1.18 for Napoli W, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Napoli W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napoli W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 29% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Lazio W and 1.18 for Napoli W, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Lazio W
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli W · 4-2 (W)
Napoli W
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como 1907 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | AC Milan W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ternana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Como W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.