Campo Mirko Fersini · Referee S. Palmieri · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Lazio W vs Parma W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Lazio W and 0.83 for Parma W, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Lazio W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lazio W win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Parma W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lazio W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for Lazio W and 0.83 for Parma W, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Lazio W
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli W · 4-2 (W)
Parma W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lazio W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sassuolo W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Fiorentina W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Roma W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Parma W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio W win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.