Campo Mirko Fersini · Referee L. Leorsini · Analysis updated 09:59 UTC
Lazio W vs Sassuolo W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lazio W and 1.13 for Sassuolo W, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Lazio W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lazio W win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lazio W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lazio W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Lazio W and 1.13 for Sassuolo W, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Lazio W
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli W · 4-2 (W)
Sassuolo W
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | AC Milan W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ternana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Napoli W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Como W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio W win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.