LD Alajuelense vs Plaza Amador Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for LD Alajuelense and 1.47 for Plaza Amador, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives LD Alajuelense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

LD Alajuelense win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

LD Alajuelense home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Plaza Amador away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LD Alajuelense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for LD Alajuelense and 1.47 for Plaza Amador, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

LD Alajuelense win62%

Draw18%

Plaza Amador win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.5%
3–17.4%
1–16.5%
2–26.2%
2–05.8%

Recent form

LD Alajuelense

2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 3-1 (W)

Plaza Amador

2026-10-04T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Cocle · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Veraguas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Central American Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	6	0	0	12	18
2	LD Alajuelense	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	CD Motagua	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	CS Cartagines	6	3	3	0	7	12
5	Deportivo Saprissa	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Alianza	6	3	1	2	-2	10
7	CD Marathon	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	CS Herediano	4	2	1	1	2	7
9	Firpo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Municipal	4	1	3	0	1	6
11	Plaza Amador	4	2	0	2	0	6
12	Mixco	4	2	0	2	0	6
13	Real Estelí	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	FAS	4	1	1	2	0	4
15	Xelajú	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Alianza FC	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Diriangén	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	UMECIT	4	0	0	4	-6	0
19	Antigua GFC	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Verdes	4	0	0	4	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is LD Alajuelense win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.