· Analysis updated 20:23 UTC
LDF vs Lioli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for LDF and 1.03 for Lioli, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Lioli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDF home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lioli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 27% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for LDF and 1.03 for Lioli, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.7%
- 0–016.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
LDF
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LCS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bantu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Members · 0-0 (D)
Lioli
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.