· Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
LDF vs SC Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for LDF and 0.55 for SC Villa, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives LDF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
LDF win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDF home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Villa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LDF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for LDF and 0.55 for SC Villa, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.6%
- 0–016.1%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–18.9%
Recent form
LDF
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LMPS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mzamane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LCS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 1-0 (W)
SC Villa
- 2026-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbarara City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lifofane · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LMPS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataka · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is LDF win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.