Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
LDU de Quito vs Aucas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for LDU de Quito and 0.95 for Aucas, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives LDU de Quito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
LDU de Quito win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDU de Quito home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aucas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LDU de Quito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for LDU de Quito and 0.95 for Aucas, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
LDU de Quito
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
Aucas
- 2026-09-19T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad Catolica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertad · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is LDU de Quito win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.