LDU de Quito vs Aucas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for LDU de Quito and 0.76 for Aucas, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives LDU de Quito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

LDU de Quito home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aucas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LDU de Quito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 32% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for LDU de Quito and 0.76 for Aucas, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

LDU de Quito win43%

Draw32%

Aucas win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

1–017.1%
0–015.6%
1–113.0%
0–111.9%
2–09.4%

Recent form

LDU de Quito

2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-1 (D)

Aucas

2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente del Valle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	32	25	2	5	40	77
2	Macara	33	18	6	9	11	60
3	LDU de Quito	33	15	8	10	9	53
4	Universidad Catolica	33	14	10	9	22	52
5	Aucas	33	14	9	10	3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	11	12	9	6	45
7	Libertad	33	14	8	11	7	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	33	11	10	12	-6	43
9	Emelec	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Leones del Norte	33	10	10	13	-6	40
11	Deportivo Cuenca	33	11	8	14	-11	41
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	9	13	11	-4	40
13	Delfin SC	33	9	8	16	-9	35
14	Orense SC	33	9	8	16	-12	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	10	3	20	-16	33
16	Manta FC	33	7	6	20	-25	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.