Estadio Reales Tamarindos · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
LDU Portoviejo vs Barcelona SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for LDU Portoviejo and 2.25 for Barcelona SC, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives LDU Portoviejo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
LDU Portoviejo win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDU Portoviejo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona SC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LDU Portoviejo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 18% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for LDU Portoviejo and 2.25 for Barcelona SC, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.4%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–15.7%
- 3–15.3%
- 2–34.8%
Recent form
LDU Portoviejo
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Santo Domingo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z · A vs El Nacional · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Cumbayá · 0-0 (D)
Barcelona SC
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is LDU Portoviejo win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.