Estadio Reales Tamarindos · Analysis updated 19:55 UTC
LDU Portoviejo vs Cumbayá Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for LDU Portoviejo and 1.68 for Cumbayá, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Cumbayá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cumbayá win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDU Portoviejo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cumbayá away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cumbayá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for LDU Portoviejo and 1.68 for Cumbayá, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
LDU Portoviejo
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Santo Domingo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs El Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 22 de Julio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 0-2 (L)
Cumbayá
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs El Nacional · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs 22 de Julio · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualaceo SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo Domingo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs LDU Portoviejo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cumbayá win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.