Stade Océane · Referee Ruddy Buquet, France · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Le Havre vs Angers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.78 for Angers, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Angers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Angers win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Angers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Le Havre and 1.78 for Angers, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Le Havre
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
Angers
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-0 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-04T16:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2025-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-0 Angers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-02-02T16:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-01T16:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-1 Angers (Ligue 1)
- 2020-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-1 Angers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2015-03-20T19:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-1 Angers (Ligue 2)
- 2014-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-0 Angers (Ligue 2)
- 2014-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-1 Angers (Ligue 2)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Angers win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.