Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.33 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Le Havre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Le Havre win

50.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Auxerre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Le Havre win50%

Draw23%

Auxerre win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.5%
1–07.6%
2–07.2%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Le Havre

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)

Auxerre

2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-05T15:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
2025-10-26T16:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-0 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
2025-05-04T15:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-1 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
2024-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre (Ligue 1)
2022-05-07T17:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-2 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
2021-12-21T19:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-2 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
2021-04-05T18:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
2020-12-01T18:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
2020-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-0 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
2019-10-05T12:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Auxerre (Ligue 2)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Le Havre win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.