Stade Océane · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Le Havre vs Lens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.45 for Lens, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lens win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lens away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Le Havre and 1.45 for Lens, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Le Havre
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
Lens
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lens win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.