Le Havre vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.03 for Lorient, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Lorient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Le Havre win26%

Draw33%

Lorient win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

0–117.4%
0–016.9%
1–113.0%
1–012.7%
0–28.9%

Recent form

Le Havre

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)

Lorient

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2025-09-21T15:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2024-01-28T14:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-3 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Lorient (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Lorient (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-2 Lorient (Ligue 2)
2019-05-17T18:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-3 Lorient (Ligue 2)
2018-07-28T13:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-0 Lorient (Ligue 2)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.