Stade Océane · Analysis updated 21:46 UTC
Le Havre vs Paris FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.22 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Paris FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris FC win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paris FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 25% / 30% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Le Havre and 1.22 for Paris FC, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Le Havre
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
Paris FC
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris FC win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.