Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.50 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain win

51.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Le Havre win23%

Draw26%

Paris Saint Germain win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.6%
1–112.2%
0–210.2%
1–29.2%
0–09.1%

Recent form

Le Havre

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-28T20:05:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2025-11-22T20:05:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2025-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2024-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-4 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2024-04-27T19:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2023-12-03T12:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
2023-07-21T15:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Friendlies Clubs)
2020-07-12T17:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-9 Paris Saint Germain (Friendlies Clubs)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.