Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.45 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Toulouse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Le Havre home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toulouse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Le Havre and 1.45 for Toulouse, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Le Havre win32%

Draw26%

Toulouse win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–110.0%
1–28.9%
1–08.4%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Le Havre

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)

Toulouse

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-15T14:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-11-02T16:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-02-23T16:15:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2024-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2022-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-4 Toulouse (Ligue 2)
2021-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Le Havre 1-1 Toulouse (Ligue 2)
2021-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 0-1 Toulouse (Ligue 2)
2020-12-19T14:00:00.000Z · Le Havre 3-4 Toulouse (Ligue 2)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.