MMArena · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Le Mans vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.60 for Auxerre, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Le Mans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Le Mans win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Mans home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auxerre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Le Mans
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-1 (D)
Auxerre
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2020-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 2-3 Auxerre (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-01-10T19:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 0-1 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
- 2019-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 0-2 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
- 2013-01-25T19:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 1-1 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
- 2012-08-20T18:30:00.000Z · Le Mans 3-1 Auxerre (Ligue 2)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Le Mans win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.