· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Le Mans vs Nantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Le Mans and 2.13 for Nantes, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Nantes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nantes win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Mans home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nantes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Le Mans
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
Nantes
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Boulogne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 1-0 Nantes (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2013-02-02T13:00:00.000Z · Le Mans 0-3 Nantes (Ligue 2)
- 2012-08-27T18:30:00.000Z · Le Mans 0-2 Nantes (Ligue 2)
- 2012-03-13T17:30:00.000Z · Le Mans 0-0 Nantes (Ligue 2)
- 2011-09-09T18:20:00.000Z · Le Mans 1-1 Nantes (Ligue 2)
- 2010-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · Le Mans 2-0 Nantes (Ligue 2)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nantes win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.