MMArena · Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Le Mans vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.15 for Nice, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Le Mans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Le Mans win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Mans home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Le Mans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Le Mans and 1.15 for Nice, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Le Mans
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
Nice
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Le Mans win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.