· Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Le Mans vs UNFP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.40 for UNFP, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives Le Mans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Le Mans win
76.4% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Mans home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNFP away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Le Mans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 12% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Le Mans and 1.40 for UNFP, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.4%
- 4–16.5%
- 2–16.4%
- 3–05.3%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Le Mans
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-1 (D)
UNFP
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Le Mans win, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.