· Analysis updated 19:30 UTC
Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Le Messager Ngozi and 1.28 for Aigle Noir, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Aigle Noir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.0% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Messager Ngozi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aigle Noir away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Le Messager Ngozi
- 2026-08-28T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Never Give Up Academy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muzinga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bumamuru · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 2-1 (W)
Aigle Noir
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Vision · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngozi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-20T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 2-2 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 1-4 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2025-02-02T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 0-3 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2024-12-11T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2024-02-04T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 2-1 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2023-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 2-1 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2023-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 2-2 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2022-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2022-04-17T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 1-0 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
- 2021-11-07T13:00:00.000Z · Le Messager Ngozi 1-2 Aigle Noir (Ligue A)
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Musongati | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Vital'O | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Flambeau du Centre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Never Give Up Academy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Young Star | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.