· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Le Pays du Valois vs Montlouis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Le Pays du Valois and 1.75 for Montlouis, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Le Pays du Valois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Pays du Valois home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montlouis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Le Pays du Valois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Le Pays du Valois and 1.75 for Montlouis, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Recent form
Le Pays du Valois
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Feignies-Aulnoye · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Colmar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastia-Borgo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Colombes 92 · 2-4 (L)
Montlouis
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Biesheim · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Creteil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Furiani-Agliani · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Epinal · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.