· Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Le Poiré sur Vie vs Saint-Malo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Le Poiré sur Vie and 1.31 for Saint-Malo, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Saint-Malo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Le Poiré sur Vie home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saint-Malo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Saint-Malo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Le Poiré sur Vie and 1.31 for Saint-Malo, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Le Poiré sur Vie
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Châteaubriant · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 0-4 (L)
Saint-Malo
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.