· Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Leatherhead vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Leatherhead and 2.33 for Ashford Town (Middlesex), a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Ashford Town (Middlesex) the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ashford Town (Middlesex) win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leatherhead home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ashford Town (Middlesex) away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Leatherhead
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Borough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheshunt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
Ashford Town (Middlesex)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Tadley Calleva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marlow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alton Town · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Leatherhead 1-1 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Leatherhead 2-2 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2024-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Leatherhead 4-0 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2024-03-19T19:45:00.000Z · Leatherhead 1-0 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Leatherhead 1-0 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2023-02-28T19:45:00.000Z · Leatherhead 3-0 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2022-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Leatherhead 2-1 Ashford Town (Middlesex) (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ashford Town (Middlesex) win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.