England · Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central · Isthmian South Central - 3615:00

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Saturday, 21 March 2026

Fetcham Grove · Analysis updated 13:56 UTC

Leatherhead vs Raynes Park Vale Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Leatherhead and 0.90 for Raynes Park Vale, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Leatherhead the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leatherhead win

74.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.64 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leatherhead home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Raynes Park Vale away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leatherhead to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Leatherhead and 0.90 for Raynes Park Vale, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Leatherhead win75%

Draw15%

Raynes Park Vale win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.2%
2–19.1%
3–08.9%
3–18.0%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Leatherhead

2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ramsgate · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Three Bridges · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 1-0 (W)

Raynes Park Vale

2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascot United · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bognor Regis Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leatherhead	42	30	6	6	59	96
2	Westfield (Surrey)	42	26	6	10	35	84
3	Hanworth Villa	42	23	12	7	48	81
4	Moneyfields	42	25	5	12	32	80
5	AFC Portchester	42	22	7	13	27	73
6	Southall	42	18	11	13	10	65
7	Egham Town	42	17	13	12	15	64
8	Harrow Borough	42	18	10	14	0	64
9	Hayes & Yeading United	42	18	7	17	-16	61
10	South Park	42	17	8	17	-1	59
11	Bognor Regis Town	42	16	9	17	0	57
12	Hartley Wintney	42	15	11	16	0	56
13	Kingstonian	42	16	8	18	-7	56
14	Raynes Park Vale	42	14	11	17	-9	53
15	Bedfont Sports	42	13	11	18	-6	50
16	Ascot United	42	15	4	23	-4	49
17	Hendon	42	12	12	18	-12	48
18	Binfield	42	14	6	22	-13	48
19	Littlehampton Town	42	12	10	20	-23	46
20	Metropolitan Police	42	12	8	22	-25	44
21	Horndean	42	7	10	25	-64	31
22	Fareham Town	42	6	7	29	-46	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leatherhead win, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.