· Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Leça vs Lusitânia Lourosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Leça and 1.49 for Lusitânia Lourosa, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Lusitânia Lourosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leça home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusitânia Lourosa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lusitânia Lourosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Leça and 1.49 for Lusitânia Lourosa, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Leça
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-2 (L)
Lusitânia Lourosa
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Madalena · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.