Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube · Analysis updated 01:32 UTC
Leça vs São João Ver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Leça and 0.98 for São João Ver, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Leça the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Leça to Win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Why the model likes this
Leça home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leça to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Leça and 0.98 for São João Ver, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.95 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.20 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.38 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.85 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.90 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.75 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.77 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Leça
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-1 (D)
São João Ver
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.