· Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Lecce U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lecce U20 and 1.63 for Fiorentina U20, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Fiorentina U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lecce U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Lecce U20 and 1.63 for Fiorentina U20, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Lecce U20
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Monza U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Torino U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio U20 · 1-2 (L)
Fiorentina U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Empoli U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Roma U20 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Bologna U20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Genoa U20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Lazio U20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Lecce U20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Milan U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Como U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Cesena U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Torino U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Fiorentina U20 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Hellas Verona U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Juventus U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Atalanta U20 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.