Lecce U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lecce U20 and 1.05 for Genoa U20, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Lecce U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lecce U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Genoa U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lecce U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Lecce U20 and 1.05 for Genoa U20, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lecce U20 win40%

Draw28%

Genoa U20 win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–012.6%
0–110.8%
0–010.3%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Lecce U20

2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Monza U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Torino U20 · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio U20 · 1-2 (L)

Genoa U20

2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena U20 · 3-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T09:00:00.000Z · Lecce U20 0-2 Genoa U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)
2025-10-26T10:00:00.000Z · Lecce U20 1-1 Genoa U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)
2025-04-06T09:00:00.000Z · Lecce U20 0-2 Genoa U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)
2024-12-14T10:00:00.000Z · Lecce U20 1-2 Genoa U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internazionale U20	7	4	3	0	10	15
2	Parma U20	7	4	3	0	9	15
3	Empoli U20	7	4	3	0	4	15
4	Roma U20	7	3	3	1	3	12
5	Bologna U20	7	4	0	3	0	12
6	Genoa U20	7	3	2	2	3	11
7	Lazio U20	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Lecce U20	7	2	4	1	2	10
9	Milan U20	7	3	1	3	0	10
10	Como U20	7	2	3	2	1	9
11	Cesena U20	7	2	3	2	0	9
12	Torino U20	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Sassuolo U20	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Cagliari U20	7	2	2	3	-6	8
15	Fiorentina U20	7	1	4	2	0	7
16	Hellas Verona U20	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Juventus U20	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Atalanta U20	7	2	0	5	-5	6
19	Monza U20	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Albinoleffe U20	7	1	1	5	-11	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.