Via del Mare · Referee Daniele Chiffi, Italy · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Lecce vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Lecce and 1.84 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AS Roma win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lecce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–213.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–38.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.5% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 7.20 | 13.0% | 13.8% | 7.25 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.09 | 85.5% | 86.2% | 1.16 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.65 | 56.6% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.62 | 35.6% | 35.7% | 2.80 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.45 | 64.3% | 64.3% | 1.56 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.4% | 42.8% | 2.34 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.7% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.0% | 78.1% | 1.28 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.55 | 26.5% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lecce
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · Lecce 0-4 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2026-03-22T17:00:00.000Z · Lecce 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2026-01-06T17:00:00.000Z · Lecce 0-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2025-03-29T19:45:00.000Z · Lecce 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-12-07T19:45:00.000Z · Lecce 1-4 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-04-01T16:00:00.000Z · Lecce 0-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2023-11-05T17:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2023-02-11T17:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2022-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · Lecce 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2022-01-20T20:00:00.000Z · Lecce 1-3 AS Roma (Coppa Italia)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.